Improving Homeland Security
Continuing Challenges and Opportunities
Paula D. Gordon
March 24, 2004
Homeland Security Impact Scale
(as adapted by Paula D. Gordon)
0 -- No real impact on national security, economic security, or personal security
1 -- Local impact in areas directly affected
2 -- Significant impact in some areas that were not directly affected
3 -- Significant market adjustment (20%) + drop); some business and industries destabilized; some bankruptcies, including increasing number of personal bankruptcies and bankruptcies of small businesses, and waning of consumer confidence;
4 -- Economic slowdown spreads; rise in unemployment and underemployment; accompanied by possible isolated *disruptive incidents and acts, increase in hunger and homelessness
5 -- Cascading impacts including mild recession; isolated supply problems*; isolated infrastructure problems*; accompanied by possible increase in *disruptive incidents and acts, continuing societal impacts
6 -- Moderate to strong recession or increased market volatility; regional supply problems; regional infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts
7 -- Spreading *supply problems and *infrastructure problems; accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, worsening societal impacts, and major challenges posed to elected and non-elected public officials
8 -- Depression; increased *supply problems; elements of *infrastructure crippled; accompanied by likely increase in disruptive incidents and acts; worsening societal impacts; and national and global markets severely impacted
9 -- Widespread *supply problems; infrastructure verging on collapse with both national and global consequences; worsening economic and societal impacts, accompanied by likely widespread disruptions
10 -- Possible unraveling of the social fabric, nationally and globally, jeopardizing the ability of governments to govern and keep the peace
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* "Supply problems" and "infrastructure problems" may include food shortages; availability of potable water; degradation of water purity, water distribution and/or waste management; fuel/heating oil shortages, disruptions in utilities (power, gas, telecommunications), disruption in the financial sector, disruptions in transportation (airlines, trains, trucking, ports, ships); pharmaceutical shortages; disruption of health care services or emergency medical services; disruption of fire and public safety
services; disruptions or inadequacies, or overwhelming of public works operations and services.
"Disruptions" and "incidents" can include anti-war and other demonstrations, work stoppages, strikes, organized vandalism, looting, and riots. Also included are sabotage and terrorist acts and attacks. (These notations have been adapted in part from notations used in the Y2K Impact Scale in 1998 by WDCY2K. See also Bruce F. Webster, 1999.)